Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Oil once again breaks $100 - again base don specualtion and not supplies

Crude soars as investors weigh the possibility of OPEC production cuts; Texas refinery explosion may have also lifted prices.

The path to $100-a-barrel oil now appears open, according to one industry analyst.
Chavez stands his ground
The Venezuelan president threatens to cut oil shipments to the United States.

NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil futures prices have shot back above $100 a barrel for the first time since Jan. 3.

A weekend refinery explosion in Texas and the possibility that OPEC will cut production next month are driving prices higher, although analysts say there isn't a single factor to explain the move.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery has risen as high as $100.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The refinery in Big Spring, Texas is owned by Alon USA. It processes nearly 70,000 barrels of oil a day. Officials say it could be closed for as long as two months.

"The refinery fire in Texas is making people a little concerned," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc. in Amherst, Mass.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose $4.05 to $99.5 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. March gasoline jumped 11.4 cents to $2.6078 a gallon, and March heating oil rose 10.41 cents to $2.751 a gallon.

The dollar fell Tuesday, giving investors another reason to buy oil. Crude futures offer a hedge against a falling dollar, and oil futures bought and sold in dollars are more attractive to foreign investors when the greenback is falling.

For the moment, investors appear to have put aside concerns about the economy that have sent oil prices down into the mid-$80 range twice since crude peaked above $100 last month. Traders are instead focused on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which will meet early next month to map out production plans, and Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez made conflicting statements this weekend about the country's legal dispute with Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM, Fortune 500)

OPEC could move to cut production in the second quarter, typically a period of low demand, though many analysts feel that's unlikely. In Venezuela, Chavez said he was not serious about an earlier threat to cut oil sales to the United States, but also threatened to sue Exxon Mobil. The world's largest oil company is fighting Venezuela's nationalization of an oil project, and recently convinced several courts to freeze $12 billion in Venezuelan oil assets.

None of the news is enough to justify a nearly $3 a barrel jump in the price of crude, said James Cordier, founder of OptionSellers.com, a Tampa, Fla., trading firm. Echoing other analysts, Cordier argued that the oil market is in the process of "decoupling" from oil's supply and demand fundamentals. He said investors drawn by the falling dollar and momentum are pushing oil prices sharply higher despite reports last week from the Energy Department, OPEC and the International Energy Agency which all cut oil demand growth predictions for this year.

"Everyone concurs that we've got smaller demand coming in the U.S.," Cordier said.

Retail gas prices, meanwhile, jumped 1.8 cents to a national average price of $3.032 a gallon Tuesday, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Retail prices, which typically lag the futures market, are following oil prices higher. The Energy Department expects gas prices to peak near $3.40 a gallon this spring.

Other energy futures also rose Tuesday. March natural gas jumped 30.1 cents to $8.961 per 1,000 cubic feet. Analysts said prices were supported by forecasts for cooler weather, but that futures were also following oil prices higher.

In London, Brent crude for April delivery rose $3.25 to $98.16 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. To top of page

No comments: