Friday, May 18, 2007

What to Expect for Gas Prices...

CALIFORNIA - - If you haven't seen the pattern lately, OPEC and other producing nations want to keep the barrel of oil above or around the 60.00 dollar mark. At this time, with twaddle business sense to the global market, both consumers and businesses cannot bear the cost at this time since the real value of oil is no more than $35-42.00 dollar a barrel without the hype.

In the US as I have been speaking since 03, using the California market as the experimentation region, the major producers will go from one extreme to another in trying to make it happen. As to my earlier comment a couple of years ago, compare the oil market as an analogy to boiling a live frog, which is the consumer. If you don?t understand that analogy, go to Google to find that story how to boil a live frog. I don?t know when it happen back then when FUTURE OIL SPOT now drives the current oil sales, distilled gasoline prices, and so on, but no longer are they using the old market method of SUPPLY & DEMAND.

Well, if you haven?t noticed since the latter part of last year and early part of this year, both distilled and stored inventory are on the rise again. This means the demand of gasoline is not that great, which in turn by the old market, should drop the pricing of both crude and wholesale gasoline; again - - SUPPLY & DEMAND. If this was the case, price of wholesale gas should drop below the 2.00 per gallon mark. This is viewed on long term and not current week-to-week analysis being projected.

This leads me now to believe that the excuses or pattern being seen now is to shutdown some of the largest refineries or cutback again the output of oil. This happened when major producers saw that the prices of crude were dropping to the 40ish dollar range. To prevent this from happening, shutting down with the excuses of early summer maintenance would cutback the distilling of gasoline to three major regions. Thus, driving up the demand for gasoline and the price of oil crude on the FUTURE OIL SPOT market.

The first option is the given one for now since we saw it happened. Though, it didn?t last long when consumers rebelled over a given time with the experimentation. Seeing last week energy analysis report, distilled and oil crude inventory is rising again - meaning the consumers/businesses are fed up with the over inflated prices. That being a fact, here is next scenario - let shutdown another major producing regional refinery to drive back that demand and raise the price of gasoline. Next, cause the same overseas since our current pricing is fixed on speculation. Third, if that fails, major producing exporters will have to cutback again for the third time as to output to keep the inflated oil prices above the 60.00 dollar mark.

The positive from all of this, it drives consumers, energy sectored technologies, and auto manufacture to develop alternative means of propulsion that will be driven by the consumer.

How can we win in this fight against the large oil producing monopolies here in California? Do what I do best…a permanent boycott against the three largest Californian distillates [STANDARD, BP [AMCO], EXXON-MOBIL]: stop purchasing their gasoline. Who is left? Independent producers...

In the end, truth will prevail?.

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